Regardless of where they stand politically, three-quarters of American adults say they support extending the enhanced tax credits to make health coverage purchased through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace more affordable.
As the government shutdown enters its third day, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll reveals that most Americans polled support the extension of the ACA tax credits.
RELATED: Federal government shutdown: What it means for Medicare, telehealth, ACA premiums, and rural health
The fight over the tax credits has led to an impasse in Congress as Republicans and Democrats fail to agree on spending bills to keep the government operating. Republicans need Democratic votes to pass spending bills in the Senate, but in exchange for their support, Democrats want Republicans to renew expanded premium subsidies for ACA market plans. Republicans say they will not negotiate unless Democrats agree to a spending bill to reopen the government.
The enhanced ACA tax credits are due to expire at the end of the year and cause marketplace health care coverage premiums to double. Indeed, a recent KFF analysis finds that marketplace consumers will see an average out-of-pocket premium increase of 114 percent if the tax credits expire. Subsidized enrollees had an average premium of $888 in 2025. Without the tax credits, the premium will increase to $1,904 in 2026.
Despite federal budget concerns, Americans surveyed by KFF indicate they support a move to extend the credits. More than three-quarters (78 percent) of 1,334 U.S. adults polled September 23-29 said they want Congress to extend the enhanced tax credits available to people with low- to moderate-incomes. That’s more than three times the share (22 percent) who say they want Congress to let the tax credits expire, according to a KFF survey announcement.
According to the poll, 59 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of “Make America Great Again” supporters favor extending the enhanced tax credits. Ninety-two percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Independents also support the extension, as do most people who buy their own health insurance, most of whom purchase through the marketplace (84 percent).
The poll also provides insight into the public’s response to arguments made by those who support and oppose extending the enhanced tax credits.
Among the public overall, more than eight in 10 say they would be concerned about the expirations of the tax credits if they heard that health insurance would become unaffordable for many people who buy their own coverage (86 percent), that about four million people would lose their health insurance coverage (86 percent), or that millions of people who work at small businesses or are self-employed would be directly impacted because they rely on the ACA marketplace (85 percent).
However, 63 percent say they would be concerned about extending the enhanced tax credits if they heard that it would require significant federal spending that would largely be paid by taxpayers. This includes a large majority of Republicans (83 percent) and most Independents (61 percent).
The poll also suggests that many marketplace enrollees are going to be surprised by the jump in their premiums if the tax credits aren’t renewed in time for 2026 open enrollment period, which starts Nov. 1.
Among people who buy their own coverage (largely through the marketplaces), about six in 10 say they have heard just “a little” or “nothing at all” about the expiration of tax credits for eligible people with marketplace coverage.
“There is a hot debate in Washington about the looming ACA premium hikes, but our poll shows that most people in the marketplaces don’t know about them yet and are in for a shock when they learn about them in November,” KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said in the announcement.
When asked if they could afford health coverage if their premiums nearly doubled, 70 percent of those who purchase their own insurance say they would not be able to afford the premiums without significantly disrupting their household finances, more than twice the share (30 percent) who say they could afford the higher premiums.
About four in 10 marketplace enrollees say they would go without health insurance coverage if the amount they had to pay for health insurance each month nearly doubled. Similar shares (37 percent) say they would continue to pay for their current health insurance, while 22 percent say they would get insurance from another source, like an employer or a spouse’s employer.
Other recent polls support KFF findings, according to AHIP, a national trade association of health plans. AHIP cited polls from Republican researchers that found 72 percent of voters back extending the tax credits and 73 percent of President Trump supporters favor candidates running in the mid-term who will protect the tax credits. AHP also noted a recent poll by Democratic firm Impact Research that found 72 percent of voters in battleground states and districts support the extension.
"The question is no longer whether extending the tax credits is popular across the political spectrum. The real question is whether Congress will act on that consensus and protect American families from an unprecedented spike in health care costs next year,” said AHIP President and CEO Mike Tuffin.