CMS released its 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D projections on Sept. 28, and the headline says average MA premiums will fall 16%. Members, brokers, and your sales teams will see this number before open enrollment starts Oct. 15. The number is a weighted average, and analysts reading the same data report flat to higher premiums for many plans.
What CMS projected
CMS projects the weighted average MA premium at $12.00 for 2027, down from $14.37 in 2026, a drop of more than 16%. For MA plans with drug coverage, the Part D premium falls from $11.32 to $7 after rebates, down 38%. Stand-alone Part D premiums rise from $35.09 to $36 a month, and the Part D stabilization demonstration ends in 2027. More than 99% of beneficiaries have at least one MA plan available and 97% have 10 or more. Total plans slip from 5,553 to 5,532.
Why the average and the analysts disagree
A weighted average moves when premiums change and when members shift between plans. Healthcare Dive reported the CMS calculation includes lower premiums for special needs plans, so the 16% does not describe what general enrollment members face. J.P. Morgan reports insurers cut the number of $0 premium plans, which raises MA-PD premiums by several dollars on average. Leerink Partners analyst Whit Mayo puts the industry-weighted average premium up about 1%, with average maximum out-of-pocket limits up 10% and Part D deductibles up 30%.
Geography changes the picture again. CMS figures reported by Becker’s show the largest average premium increases in Wyoming (+$23.32), Idaho (+$10.12), and Connecticut (+$8.42), and the largest decreases in Minnesota (-$9.71), D.C. (-$9.37), and Mississippi (-$7.10). A national average of $12.00 matches few individual markets.
What this means for plans
Members compare your premium, out-of-pocket limit, and Part D deductible with the plans in your county, not with a national average, so market-level results matter more than the CMS headline. The Part D shift affects those comparisons. With the stabilization demonstration ending, stand-alone premiums rise slightly while MA plans with drug coverage post a 38% decline, which favors MA-PD when members weigh the two options on price.
CMS projects 34 million MA enrollees in 2027, or 47.4% of Medicare. Becker’s reports 36.1 million enrolled as of June 2026. CMS says its projections have historically underestimated actual enrollment, so the 34 million is a low estimate and not a forecast of decline. Special needs plans keep gaining share, and the D-SNP alignment rule starts limiting new enrollment in affected plans in 2027. Our article on the D-SNP alignment rule explains what changes in 2027 and what waits until 2030.
What this means for marketing and sales
Members and brokers will see the 16% headline before they see plan-level numbers. If your plan raised a premium, out-of-pocket limit, or Part D deductible this year, your sales team explains the gap between the headline and the quote in every conversation. Broker training, member notices, and call scripts all address the same gap.
Open enrollment starts in about two weeks. Enrollment files, plan mix, and competitor comparisons will show the first results through 2027. RISE National 2027 brings risk adjustment, quality and Stars, and marketing and sales leaders together March 16 to 18 at Caesars Forum in Las Vegas. Come compare what the first months of the 2027 plan year looked like across plans and markets.